Development of Cost Prediction Model for Improving Cost Estimate at Completion of Building Construction Projects Using MATLAB R2014a Simulink, and Regression Model

Girmay Getawa Ayalew; Genet Melkamu Ayalew

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ijmfs.20251102.12

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Development of Cost Prediction Model for Improving Cost Estimate at Completion of Building Construction Projects Using MATLAB R2014a Simulink, and Regression Model

Girmay Getawa Ayalew^*

, Genet Melkamu Ayalew

Published in International Journal of Management and Fuzzy Systems (Volume 11, Issue 2)

Received: 21 June 2025 Accepted: 7 July 2025 Published: 28 July 2025

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Abstract

The success of a project is obtained through the proper management from the beginning to the end of the project. Several studies have been conducted in the project management field further to improve the earned value management methodology to forecast the project cost estimate at completion. However, this study provides to investigate a new research methodology proposed to provide more reliable CEAC by using MATLAB R2014a and Multiple regressions. Thus, the main objective of this study is to focus on the development of a cost prediction model for improving cost estimate at completion of building construction projects using MATLAB R2014a, and regression model. The study is conducted on an EVM data set comprising five real-life projects database gathering between 2021 and 2024. The analysis method was made by using Microsoft excel, MATLAB R2014a, and a statistical package for social science as an analysis tool. The finding of the study revealed that the dependability of EAC on input variable produced by the membership function, and rule viewer is 70% of the estimate at compilation which is quite an acceptable value. It was also found that the regression model shows excellent results in prediction with a coefficient of correlation is 95.70%, 99.90%, 96.10%, 92.40%, and 90.40% for the five projects. Similarly, the coefficient of determination is 91.70%, 99.99%, 92.40%, 85.40%, and 81.70% respectively for the five projects. Finally, it can be recommended that the developed model be conducted in building projects to demonstrate its practicality.

Published in	International Journal of Management and Fuzzy Systems (Volume 11, Issue 2)
DOI	10.11648/j.ijmfs.20251102.12
Page(s)	62-89
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2025. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Prediction, Cost, Estimate at Completion, MATLAB R2014a, Regression Model

References

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APA Style

Ayalew, G. G., Ayalew, G. M. (2025). Development of Cost Prediction Model for Improving Cost Estimate at Completion of Building Construction Projects Using MATLAB R2014a Simulink, and Regression Model. International Journal of Management and Fuzzy Systems, 11(2), 62-89. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijmfs.20251102.12

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ACS Style

Ayalew, G. G.; Ayalew, G. M. Development of Cost Prediction Model for Improving Cost Estimate at Completion of Building Construction Projects Using MATLAB R2014a Simulink, and Regression Model. Int. J. Manag. Fuzzy Syst. 2025, 11(2), 62-89. doi: 10.11648/j.ijmfs.20251102.12

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AMA Style

Ayalew GG, Ayalew GM. Development of Cost Prediction Model for Improving Cost Estimate at Completion of Building Construction Projects Using MATLAB R2014a Simulink, and Regression Model. Int J Manag Fuzzy Syst. 2025;11(2):62-89. doi: 10.11648/j.ijmfs.20251102.12

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@article{10.11648/j.ijmfs.20251102.12,
  author = {Girmay Getawa Ayalew and Genet Melkamu Ayalew},
  title = {Development of Cost Prediction Model for Improving Cost Estimate at Completion of Building Construction Projects Using MATLAB R2014a Simulink, and Regression Model
},
  journal = {International Journal of Management and Fuzzy Systems},
  volume = {11},
  number = {2},
  pages = {62-89},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijmfs.20251102.12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijmfs.20251102.12},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijmfs.20251102.12},
  abstract = {The success of a project is obtained through the proper management from the beginning to the end of the project. Several studies have been conducted in the project management field further to improve the earned value management methodology to forecast the project cost estimate at completion. However, this study provides to investigate a new research methodology proposed to provide more reliable CEAC by using MATLAB R2014a and Multiple regressions. Thus, the main objective of this study is to focus on the development of a cost prediction model for improving cost estimate at completion of building construction projects using MATLAB R2014a, and regression model. The study is conducted on an EVM data set comprising five real-life projects database gathering between 2021 and 2024. The analysis method was made by using Microsoft excel, MATLAB R2014a, and a statistical package for social science as an analysis tool. The finding of the study revealed that the dependability of EAC on input variable produced by the membership function, and rule viewer is 70% of the estimate at compilation which is quite an acceptable value. It was also found that the regression model shows excellent results in prediction with a coefficient of correlation is 95.70%, 99.90%, 96.10%, 92.40%, and 90.40% for the five projects. Similarly, the coefficient of determination is 91.70%, 99.99%, 92.40%, 85.40%, and 81.70% respectively for the five projects. Finally, it can be recommended that the developed model be conducted in building projects to demonstrate its practicality.},
 year = {2025}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Development of Cost Prediction Model for Improving Cost Estimate at Completion of Building Construction Projects Using MATLAB R2014a Simulink, and Regression Model

AU  - Girmay Getawa Ayalew
AU  - Genet Melkamu Ayalew
Y1  - 2025/07/28
PY  - 2025
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijmfs.20251102.12
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijmfs.20251102.12
T2  - International Journal of Management and Fuzzy Systems
JF  - International Journal of Management and Fuzzy Systems
JO  - International Journal of Management and Fuzzy Systems
SP  - 62
EP  - 89
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2575-4947
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijmfs.20251102.12
AB  - The success of a project is obtained through the proper management from the beginning to the end of the project. Several studies have been conducted in the project management field further to improve the earned value management methodology to forecast the project cost estimate at completion. However, this study provides to investigate a new research methodology proposed to provide more reliable CEAC by using MATLAB R2014a and Multiple regressions. Thus, the main objective of this study is to focus on the development of a cost prediction model for improving cost estimate at completion of building construction projects using MATLAB R2014a, and regression model. The study is conducted on an EVM data set comprising five real-life projects database gathering between 2021 and 2024. The analysis method was made by using Microsoft excel, MATLAB R2014a, and a statistical package for social science as an analysis tool. The finding of the study revealed that the dependability of EAC on input variable produced by the membership function, and rule viewer is 70% of the estimate at compilation which is quite an acceptable value. It was also found that the regression model shows excellent results in prediction with a coefficient of correlation is 95.70%, 99.90%, 96.10%, 92.40%, and 90.40% for the five projects. Similarly, the coefficient of determination is 91.70%, 99.99%, 92.40%, 85.40%, and 81.70% respectively for the five projects. Finally, it can be recommended that the developed model be conducted in building projects to demonstrate its practicality.
VL  - 11
IS  - 2
ER  -

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Author Information

Girmay Getawa Ayalew

Department of Construction Technology and Management, School of Civil and Water Resource Engineering, Institute of Technology, Woldia University, Woldia, Ethiopia

Contact Email

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0338-771X
Genet Melkamu Ayalew

Department of Construction Technology and Management, School of Civil and Water Resource Engineering, Institute of Technology, Woldia University, Woldia, Ethiopia

Contact Email

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2429-5734

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APA Style

Ayalew, G. G., Ayalew, G. M. (2025). Development of Cost Prediction Model for Improving Cost Estimate at Completion of Building Construction Projects Using MATLAB R2014a Simulink, and Regression Model. International Journal of Management and Fuzzy Systems, 11(2), 62-89. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijmfs.20251102.12

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ACS Style

Ayalew, G. G.; Ayalew, G. M. Development of Cost Prediction Model for Improving Cost Estimate at Completion of Building Construction Projects Using MATLAB R2014a Simulink, and Regression Model. Int. J. Manag. Fuzzy Syst. 2025, 11(2), 62-89. doi: 10.11648/j.ijmfs.20251102.12

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AMA Style

Ayalew GG, Ayalew GM. Development of Cost Prediction Model for Improving Cost Estimate at Completion of Building Construction Projects Using MATLAB R2014a Simulink, and Regression Model. Int J Manag Fuzzy Syst. 2025;11(2):62-89. doi: 10.11648/j.ijmfs.20251102.12

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.ijmfs.20251102.12,
  author = {Girmay Getawa Ayalew and Genet Melkamu Ayalew},
  title = {Development of Cost Prediction Model for Improving Cost Estimate at Completion of Building Construction Projects Using MATLAB R2014a Simulink, and Regression Model
},
  journal = {International Journal of Management and Fuzzy Systems},
  volume = {11},
  number = {2},
  pages = {62-89},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijmfs.20251102.12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijmfs.20251102.12},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijmfs.20251102.12},
  abstract = {The success of a project is obtained through the proper management from the beginning to the end of the project. Several studies have been conducted in the project management field further to improve the earned value management methodology to forecast the project cost estimate at completion. However, this study provides to investigate a new research methodology proposed to provide more reliable CEAC by using MATLAB R2014a and Multiple regressions. Thus, the main objective of this study is to focus on the development of a cost prediction model for improving cost estimate at completion of building construction projects using MATLAB R2014a, and regression model. The study is conducted on an EVM data set comprising five real-life projects database gathering between 2021 and 2024. The analysis method was made by using Microsoft excel, MATLAB R2014a, and a statistical package for social science as an analysis tool. The finding of the study revealed that the dependability of EAC on input variable produced by the membership function, and rule viewer is 70% of the estimate at compilation which is quite an acceptable value. It was also found that the regression model shows excellent results in prediction with a coefficient of correlation is 95.70%, 99.90%, 96.10%, 92.40%, and 90.40% for the five projects. Similarly, the coefficient of determination is 91.70%, 99.99%, 92.40%, 85.40%, and 81.70% respectively for the five projects. Finally, it can be recommended that the developed model be conducted in building projects to demonstrate its practicality.},
 year = {2025}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Development of Cost Prediction Model for Improving Cost Estimate at Completion of Building Construction Projects Using MATLAB R2014a Simulink, and Regression Model

AU  - Girmay Getawa Ayalew
AU  - Genet Melkamu Ayalew
Y1  - 2025/07/28
PY  - 2025
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijmfs.20251102.12
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijmfs.20251102.12
T2  - International Journal of Management and Fuzzy Systems
JF  - International Journal of Management and Fuzzy Systems
JO  - International Journal of Management and Fuzzy Systems
SP  - 62
EP  - 89
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2575-4947
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijmfs.20251102.12
AB  - The success of a project is obtained through the proper management from the beginning to the end of the project. Several studies have been conducted in the project management field further to improve the earned value management methodology to forecast the project cost estimate at completion. However, this study provides to investigate a new research methodology proposed to provide more reliable CEAC by using MATLAB R2014a and Multiple regressions. Thus, the main objective of this study is to focus on the development of a cost prediction model for improving cost estimate at completion of building construction projects using MATLAB R2014a, and regression model. The study is conducted on an EVM data set comprising five real-life projects database gathering between 2021 and 2024. The analysis method was made by using Microsoft excel, MATLAB R2014a, and a statistical package for social science as an analysis tool. The finding of the study revealed that the dependability of EAC on input variable produced by the membership function, and rule viewer is 70% of the estimate at compilation which is quite an acceptable value. It was also found that the regression model shows excellent results in prediction with a coefficient of correlation is 95.70%, 99.90%, 96.10%, 92.40%, and 90.40% for the five projects. Similarly, the coefficient of determination is 91.70%, 99.99%, 92.40%, 85.40%, and 81.70% respectively for the five projects. Finally, it can be recommended that the developed model be conducted in building projects to demonstrate its practicality.
VL  - 11
IS  - 2
ER  -

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